![]() Irvin delivers, and the play begins.ġ.0 seconds after Irvin begins his pitching motion: He is pretty fast too: His sprint speed is 70th percentile. The runner on first, Peraza, isn't being held on at first. Lorenzen is fast: His sprint speed is in the 85th percentile of all major league runners, according to Statcast. Just before the pitch is thrown, the pitcher, Irvin, takes a long look at Lorenzen, the lead runner, on second base. He is 281 feet back on the first pitch of the at-bat, and he doesn't budge as the count progresses to 1-2. Even two innings earlier, Harper had been standing one foot deeper for Blandino - 282 feet - but here he was a foot shallower. The league played Blandino, on average, 285 feet away, with some teams setting up as far as 290 feet away. The league plays the average right-handed batter 292 feet away. Cole Irvin, a lefty, replaced him.Īnd 1 minute, 28 seconds before the pitch was thrown - when the Cincinnati Reds' batter who hit the line drive, Alex Blandino, was digging into the batter's box - Harper took one big step back from where he had been playing for the previous batter, Peraza. Eight minutes, 40 seconds earlier, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Nick Pivetta was removed with a runner on first base and one out in the inning. ![]() Two important things occurred before the pitch was ever thrown. And we're going to eventually try to answer the central question: Who gets credit for what happened and how much? ![]() We're going to break down this play, which is ordinary enough to pass unmentioned but extraordinary enough to watch 30 or 40 times without wringing it all the way dry. Whose WAR (wins above replacement) goes up on the play? Is it Harper's, because his strong throw home set everything up? Or Realmuto's, because his throw to second led to the assist? Or Segura's, because his acrobatic tag finished the out? Or is it even more nuanced than that? Single to RF (Line Drive to Short CF-RF) Lorenzen to 3B Peraza out at 2Bīut those nine seconds, like in many baseball plays, comprise a very complicated story, and converting that complicated story into units of credit is one of the permanent challenges of baseball statistics. It can be, like every baseball play, recorded as a simple text description: It all took slightly more than nine seconds, at the end of which one thing had changed - two outs had become three, ending the rally. He initially was called safe, but upon video review, the call was overturned, and Peraza was out. Peraza got back to the base before the tag, but his slide took him off the bag. ![]() Realmuto, fielded Harper's throw and snapped a throw to second, where shortstop Jean Segura caught it and dropped a tag on Peraza. The trailing baserunner, Jose Peraza, who had started on first base, rounded second and went halfway to third, then backtracked. The baserunner, Michael Lorenzen, who had started the play on second base, held at third. 5, fielded it cleanly and fired a strong throw home. How is WAR calculated, really? Breaking down a single play to find outīryce Harper charged a soft line drive on Sept. You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser
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